Ongororo Yakanaka Research Research Yakatsvaga Kuderedza Sampling Error
Chii chinonzi Interval Confidence?
Chimbovimbiso chekutenderera ndicho chikamu chekukanganisa kunoitwa nemutsvakurudzi kana achikwanisa kubvunza mubvunzo wekutsvakurudza , taura, wemunhu wese wevanhu vanotarirwa uye vogamuchira mhinduro imwechete shure kwekuti nhengo dzomuenzaniso wacho dzakapiwa muongororo.
Semuenzaniso, kana muongorori akashandisa nguva yekutenda ye4 ne60% yevatori vechikamu muongororo yekuongorora yakapindura "Inogona kukurudzira shamwari," aigona kuva nechokwadi chokuti pakati pe 54% uye 64% yevamwe vese vavanhu vanozove uyewo unoti "Ungakurudzira shamwari" kana wakabvunzwa mubvunzo iwoyo. Nguva yekuvimba, munyaya iyi, iri +/- 4.
Chii Chinonzi Trust Trust Level?
Chivimbo chekutaura ndechekuratidzira kwokuti unovimba nemutsvakurudzi anogona sei kuva nemashoko akawanikwa kubva muenzaniso. Kuvimba kwehutano kunoratidzirwa seperesenti uye kuratidza kuti kazhinji chikamu ichocho chevanhu vakatarisa chinopa mhinduro inenge iri mukati mekutenderera. Iyo inowanzoshandiswa kushandiswa kwehutano yepo 95%. Chimwe chirevo chakafanana chinonzi statistical significance.
Mutsvakurudzi aine chivimbo muhutano hwokuti muenzaniso wake unomiririra wechinangwa chevanhu inokonzerwa nezviitiko zvakawanda.
Mumwe muongorori akavimba mukudzidza kwavo nekugadzirisa - uye kuziva kwekukwanisa kwayo - inonyanya kuvakirwa pamhando mitatu yakakosha: Shanduro yesero, nguva yakawanda yekupindura, uye huwandu hwevanhu. Vatsvakurudzi vave kwenguva yakareba vabvumirana kuti izvi zvinoshandiswa zvinofanira kunyatsoongororwa panguva yekutsvaga chirongwa chekutsvakurudza.
- Kukura Kwemuenzaniso Kazhinji kutaura, sampuli huru dzinopa dambudziko rinonyatsoratidza chinangwa chevanhu. Nharaunda yakawanda yekutenderera inoratidza kusanyanya kuvimba munharaunda nokuti kune imwe nzvimbo yakawanda yekukanganisa . Nzvimbo yakakura yekutendesa yakafanana nekukanda mabheji ako. Kunyange zvazvo kune ukama pakati pekuvimba kwepakati uye kuenzanisa ukuru, asi hausi ukama huri pakati . Mumwe mutsvakurudzi haagoni kuderedza chivimbo chepakati nepakati nekupindira kuenzaniswa kwemuenzaniso.
- Kakawanda kwekupindura Kururama kwokuti shanduro yedhiyabhorosi inoratidze chinangwa chevanhu inotarirwawo nehuwandu hwevanhu vakapindura avo vakapa mhinduro chaiyo kana kuti vakapindura neimwe nzira . Izvo zvakanyanya nhamba yevakapindura avo vakapa mhinduro chaiyo, vanoti "Vanofara kwazvo," chokwadi uyo muongorori anogona kuva wekupindura ikoko. Pachava nekusiyana kwehuwandu hwehuwandu hwepakati mukati memamiriro ekuruka. Izvi zvinoreva, kana muongorori ari 50% ane chivimbo chokuti nhengo dzevanhu vanopararira vachabvumirana (mukati mekuvimbiswa kwevimbiso) senhengo dzezveruzhinji rwevanhu, pane inogona kunge yakasiyana-siyana kubva kune iyoyo 50%.
Zvakanaka kuyeuka kuti kunze kwemashoko (data iri pamagumo akareba, kana miswe miviri, yenguva yakakosha) inowanzoitika kune imwechete yehuwandu hwehuwandu hwevanhu sezvinoitwa mumuenzaniso - pane kuchinja kuduku kuno , nokuti pane zvishoma zvishoma . (Cherechedza kuti mabhora ari muGalton Box anowanzopindira sei pakati pePacific Science Center kuratidzwa? Bhora shomanana chete dzinopinda mumumiswe.) Nokuda kwechikonzero ichocho, zviri nyore kuva nechivimbo chekuwandisa kwemhinduro dzakanyanyisa .
- Nhamba yehuwandu hwevanhu haisi chinhu chinokosha pakushambadza kwekuenzanisa kunze kwekuti muongorori ari kushanda nehuwandu hudiki uye hunozivikanwa naye (semuenzaniso, zvishoma zvakakwana kuitira kuti nhengo dzose dzevanhu dzinogona kuzivikanwa nemutsvakurudzi).
Creative Research Systems inoratidza kuti:
Mathemati ehutano anoratidza kuti hukuru hwevanhu hahuna maturo kunze kwekuti uwandu hwemuenzaniso huri kupfuura huwandu hwemazana ehuwandu hwevanhu iwe uri kuongorora. Izvi zvinoreva kuti muenzaniso wevanhu 500 unobatsira zvakaenzana pakuongorora maonero ehurumende ye 15,000 000 sezvaizova guta re100,000.
Kuita sendimu yekumiririra kunogona kuva inodhura uye inopedza nguva. Vanotsvakurudza nguva dzose vanotarisana nebasa iri pakati pekuvimba kwevanoda kuti vape-kana kuti chiyero chekururama chavanoda kuti vaite-uye chivimbo chavanogona kuwana.
Sample Size Mukutsvakurudza Kunobatsira Kunoita
Kutsvakurudza kwakakodzera kunotsvakurudza kana kunotsanangurwa mumasikirwo uye haisi kutarisa kumatare kana kuyerwa. Asi kunetseka pamusoro pekupikisa kwekanganiso muhutano hwekutsvakurudza tsvakurudzo zvichiri kushanda. Sezvo mutemo wehurumende, kana samuenzaniso inomiririra chinangwa chezvinhu zvose, zvinyorwa kana mapurogiramu anowanikwa kubva mukutsvakurudza acharatidza huwandu hwevanhu hunofarira kumutsvakurudzi. Kana mienzaniso yacho yose yakamiriririra uye inosanganisira chikamu chikuru chevanhu vanofunga, ipapo kuvimba mukururama kwedhesi yakabva pachiyero ichocho inowanzove yakakwirira.
Kusarudza Kukura Kwemuenzaniso Mukutsvaga Ongororo
Mitemo yakasiyana inoshandiswa pakutsvakurudza kwehuwandu uye tsvakurudzo yepamusoro apo inosvika mukugadzirisa kushamba kwemuenzaniso. Kazhinji kutaura, kuva nechivimbo munharaunda inoumbwa nekutsvakurudza kuongororwa kwepamusoro, mumwe muongorori anofanirwa kuva nemafungiro akajeka ekushandiswa kwe data. Iyi dhesi inogona kuumba nheyo yezvinyorwa zvinotsanangura (sezvinoitika munyaya yekuongorora kana kumwe kutsvakurudza kwevanhu) kana inogona kushanda mune imwe nzira yekuongorora kuti ione kusiyana kwakakodzera kunogona kuve kuongororwa kuwirirana mune zvidzidzo zvakakwana.
Sample Size muUnodzivirira Ongororo Ongororo
Kuongororwa kwakawanda kunowanzobatanidza kuenzanisa pakati pezvikamu zvemashamba kana zvikamu zvemashamba ekutsvaga. Nokuti kuongororwa kwehuwandu kune nhamba-inotungamirirwa, kugadzirisa hutano hwakanaka hwekuenzanisa kunogona kunge kuri nyore nyore - kune rimwe boka rinokosha kana kuti chikamu mukudzidza, muongorori angatarisira kuongorora vatori vechikamu zana. Iyi nhamba inyanzvi uye kwete mhedziso. Muchengetedzi wemuchengeterwo achaongorora zvimwe zvakasiyana-siyana zvinoshandiswa kuongorora hukuru hwemuenzaniso muongororo yekuongorora.
Paunenge uchitsvaga kutsvakurudza kwemisika, chinangwa ndechokuti uwane kubva pane izvo zvinogona kunge zviri zvechokwadi kune chinangwa chezvinhu zvose. Muenzaniso unopa data inogona kuonekwa kana kuzivikanwa. Kubva pane ichi chakacherechedza kana data inozivikanwa, mumwe mutsvakurudzi anogona kufungidzira kuti chiyero chechizivo chisingazivikanwi kana parameter chinogona kuwanikwa mune chinangwa chevanhu.
Kuongororwa kwakaongororwa kutsvakurudza kwakavakirwa pane pfungwa yechinyakare , yakasiyana-siyana inopindira inomiririra, mupfungwa yemuongorori, chinangwa chezvinhu zvose - chizvarwa pamusoro pekuti muongorori anofanirwa kufungidzira pane kunyatsoziva zviyero. Mumiririri mumiririro anobvumira muongorori kuverenga - kubva pane shanduro yedhesi - inofungidzirwa mararamiro ezvimwe zvinogona kuisa kukosha kusingazivikanwi kana parameter iyo inofarira. Izvi zvinofungidzirwa uwandu hwehutano hunomiririra nzvimbo pane yakananga kuvhara uye kazhinji inoratidzirwa sepasimenti kana yezana.
The Normal Curve and Probability
Chimwe chimiro chinowirirana, chakasiyana-siyana chiratidzo chekuona kwezvingaitika. Ngatitarisei nezvemaitiro akareruka: Basa riri mune imwe nzvimbo yezvesayenzi rinoita kuti nhamba huru yemabhola iwire pakati pemashizha maviri echiki, rimwe panguva. Bhoro rimwe nerimwe rinowira mumusuo mumwechete pamusoro pekuratidzira uye zvino inodonha pakati pevamwe vezvidimbu, zviparadzanisa zvakafanana izvo zvinoparadzanisa zvikanda zvebhola kana vadzoka kuzorora. Pashure pemaawa akawanda, mabhora akaumba maitiro echinyakare chaiwo. Iko kumhanya kunoshandura zvishomanana sezvo bhora rimwe nerimwe rachangobva kubudiswa rinoputika uwandu hwebhora dzakasvika pakutanga. Asi zvakazara, iyo inopindirana yakajeka uye yakaitika zvakasikwa, yakasununguka pane chimwe chinhu chinoitwa nevatariri veScience Centre kana vashandi. Mhando yakadzika iyo mavara emabhora anoratidza mikana iyo yakawanda yebhora ichawira pakati uye igare imomo. Mipira shomanana ichaita kuti zvive mumigumo yakareba yechipfuva - zvimwe zvinoda, asi zvishoma muhuwandu.
Izvi zvinowirirana mazamu akafanana nemuenzaniso wemuenzaniso. Nenguva imwe nguva kuratidzwa kwadzimwa uye mabhora zvakare anobvumirwa kuwira muGalton bhokisi, kusarudzwa kwezvikwata zvebhobho zvichave zvishoma zvishoma. Asi nekufamba kwemazuva, chimiro chemukati hachizoshandisi zvakawanda uye muenzaniso uchachengetedza chokwadi.